Thursday 6 December 2012

6th December 2012

Now is the winter of our discontent.

From Shakespeare to Steinbeck this is a ringing phrase.

It summons up deep feelings and strong emotions. Richard's envy at his brother; Ethan's deep despair that he has fallen on hard times, working as a store clerk in what was his own business.

Yesterday's Autumn Statement was not in fact a statement made in the Autumn.

By any definition of the seasons December is in the winter and anyone looking for signs of hope or opportunity in the Chancellor's statement came rapidly to the conclusion that all they had to look forward to was discontent.

The longed for possibility of a glorious summer postponed into the distant future after the next election.

So what was promised, the short sharp shock of austerity, leading to recovery and the restoration of both individual and national success, has turned into the long, drawn out, painful route march into an as yet undetermined future.

Like the people of Moses after they left the land of Egypt, there would be a forty year walk through the wilderness before they glimpsed the land of God's promise.

Now the land of Mr Osborne's promise has also been delayed for some time to come, if not indefinitely.

Fuel prices will not increase and the A1 will be improved, however child benefits and working benefits and benefits for those unable to work will increase by a measly 1%.

The good news is that Starbucks has promised to pay its taxes in full, so at least folk can buy their coffee with an easy conscience.

Watching and listening to the Autumn Statement and the various pundits who discussed it on the TV News the word that came into my head again and again was the word, iatrogenic.

Iatro is a prefix meaning healer or in some cases treatment.

A consultation with the doctor used to end with a request to come back in two weeks if its no better, the average doctor working on the hypothesis that the human body is perfectly capable of healing itself and most things clear up after a couple of weeks.

Iatrogenics describes the situation when the treatment (or healer) causes more harm by prescribing than not actually treating whatever is wrong would cause.

Listening to Mr Osborne's prescription for the economy I found myself wondering what would happen if we did nothing?

What is the condition we are treating?

I guess that it is public indebtedness in one form or another.

We are spending more as a nation than we are earning.

So we need to spend less and earn more.

Dickensian economics would have it that earning a pound and spending a pound and ninepence results in unhappiness, whilst earning a pound and spending nineteen shillings and sixpence equals happiness.

The commentary on the Autumn statement suggested that those at the top were paying less than those at the bottom but this was denied by the Chancellor.

One figure emerged that savings in the top rate of tax would make some people seventy five pounds a week better off which is exactly the sum that some folk have to live on each week.

So what if we did nothing at all about the situation we find ourselves in?

Well to start with we'd muddle on, like Ethan in Steinbeck's novel we might have to sell the store and end up working for the new owner, but there is a sense that we're doing that already, most of our power generators, our car manufacturers, steel manufacturers and  public utilities are owned by individuals or companies based outside the UK.

Inflation would continue to erode savings and incomes and costs would rise creating a disproportionately large 'Tax' on the poor.

Unemployment would continue to rise.

Living standards would continue to fall.

We'd start to take in each others washing to survive, start bartering services for goods and vice versa, discontent would  increase and public restlessness would grow and we would almost certainly arrive in the most complete sense of Shakespeare's phrase, in the midst of a real winter of discontent.

Memories of the three day week and sitting in the cold reading by a lamp powered by a car battery.

At the height of that winter of discontent a Marxist reading of Shakespeare's speech might recognise that what was going on yesterday was the expression of the belief of the privileged in our society that their privileges were enjoyed as a right.

Which leaves both the Chancellor and The Shadow Chancellor arguing over what  it will take to turn this winter of discontent into a glorious summer and Nick Clegg shaking his head over the Mansion Tax.

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