24th March 2016

The East Birmingham Theology Coop was an initiative of the Centre for Applied Christian Studies based at the Selly Oak Colleges in Birmingham.

I was Director of the Centre from 1987 until 1991.

As part of my involvement with East Birmingham I was for a while seconded to the East Birmingham Task Force. The Task Force was an initiative of the Thatcher Government. Its main task was to spend £1M a year in East Birmingham in order to revitalise the local economy and encourage local community initiatives and entrepreneurialism.

At the beginning of each financial year the Task Force would be invited to consider what projects should be funded, which community partnerships could be identified and encouraged and where and how the money could be most usefully directed and spent.

Following a discussion in the Theology Coop, made up of local clergy, community workers and lay people from the Churches an idea emerged which I proposed at the meeting.

The suggestion was to take the Electoral Roll and divide the money by the number of households and then to give each household a share of the cash.

It seemed to me that if we adopted this strategy that soon the cash registers would jangle as the money was spent over the counters in the local stores and businesses in East Birmingham. That the enrichment of the local community would be clear and tangible and the administrative costs would be kept low.

People with money to spend would have significantly greater purchasing power, significantly less debt and significantly greater autonomy.

There was a moment when the the paymaster of the Task Force who had joined us from London for the meeting appeared to be taken with the idea and for one brief, heady moment I really thought that it might happen.

Now following the relative failure of Quantitive Easing, given that most of the money ended up uninvested and in the Bank or spent on Bonuses, that enriching, for Bankers, mechanism for distributing wealth amongst the already wealthy, the idea that stemmed from The East Birmingham Theology Coop may have its moment.

Now the idea, floated by commentators in a number of Newspapers including the FT, is proposed under the nom de plume:

Helicopter Money.

Instead of giving the cash to the banks, give it to the people and they will spend it, business will boom, cash registers will jangle and the economy will become healthy and well seasoned.

Sometimes the simple ideas are the most profound.

Maybe now as the welfare debate rumbles on it is time for another simple idea to be tested?

Just as the new Work and Pensions Minister announced that the Personal Independence Payment was to be protected along with pensions, education, and various other sacrosanct budget items, so arguments about intergenerational justice have been raised. Such as for example questions about the triple lock on pensions meaning not only that wealthy pensioners retained both bus passes and free TV licences but at a time of zero inflation pensions rose by 2.5%.

Welfare is expensive to administer, it is costly to the exchequer, it raises all the tedious questions about the value of benefits and the benefits of of paying people not to work, the shirkers and strivers argument so beloved of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. It foments the painful and costly comparison between the deserving and the undeserving. So 'us' are set against 'them' and society strains to find the point of balance between need and justice.

The idea of a basic citizens income is surely about to find its moment?

 It is being promoted and tested in Scandinavian Countries, it is being proposed in New Zealand and debated in Canada and nearer to home it is being explored just north of the Border in Scotland (another argument for Cumbria to edge out of England and into the arms of a more enlightened democracy?).

So what would it mean and how could it be afforded?

International arguments suggest that if tax remained constant or rather than be defined as progressive or regressive became much more neutral levied on incomes above a certain level at a flat rate, and if the whole welfare budget was consolidated. Then a fund could be created which would allow each individual to receive a basic citizens income.

For those who could live on that money at whatever level it was set, all well and good, for those who wished to increase their income the the citizens income element would remain and tax would be taken at the nationally agreed level on earnings.

The Citizens income could, as is proposed in Scotland, itself be graduated, a lower level for those under a certain age, whether in full time education or, a higher level for adults reflecting perhaps the level at which currently benefits are paid and for pensioners a level reflecting the current pension, which of course reflects the Citizen Wage in the sense that the State Pension is deducted from the personal allowance so that where the pensioners income is higher than the current personal threshold they pay tax on that higher pension income.

Like 'helicopter money' the Citizens Income has the distinct advantage of simplicity, but it is also equitable, it leaves room for those who wish to pursue their dreams to do so, it would encourage a whole new generation of song writers, poets, novelists and artists to emerge without the constraints imposed by the need to generate income to feed and clothe and house themselves. It also removes the difficult balance between welfare and work, where too frequently the actual tax paid in the transitional period approaches 100% as welfare tapers whilst work doesn't pay sufficient to compensate the loss of benefit.

If the Chancellor was a truly reforming politician in a truly reforming administration who wished seriously to address the anomalies, difficulties and challenges within welfare as it has slowly emerged from Beveridge's initial vision of a 'safety net' then a citizens income offers a truly radical answer, it has the potential for slicing open the Gordian Knot of Welfare.

4th February 2016

How do politicians get themselves into such a mess?

Given the critical issues facing Europe at the moment, any one of which from money to migration, could result in an existential crisis for the European Community, with the Euro, the Schengen agreement, Grexit and Brexit, why decide that this is a good moment for a referendum?

Some commentators reckon, given that Osborne and Cameron had no real expectation of winning the last election, that they larded the manifesto with a variety of offers, none of which needed to be followed through, because failing to deliver on anything from welfare cuts, tax credits or a referendum on Europe could always be blamed on the Liberal Democrats in coalition.

Maybe so.

It is often said that we get the politicians that we deserve which raises the possibility that we must have been pretty bad in a previous life to deserve the politicians we have now.

Margaret Thatcher's legacy was the Poll Tax, accompanied by mass unemployment, de-industrialisation and the ascendency of financial sector together with its bonus culture.

Harold Wilson's legacy was the Open University.

Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum what will David Cameron's legacy be?

An isolated and broken Britain, separated from Scotland and limping along with underinvestment, rising austerity and dependent for its energy supply on Chinese and French Companies with the profits generated recycled to China and France.

With the Brexit Campaign now led by Lord Lawson it is suggested by the media that the Tory Big Beasts will begin to snarl and roar in support of Britain exiting the European Union, big beasts they may be but they are also Little Englanders, resisting the powers of the European Parliament, to which we elect representatives, of deciding what can happen in the UK, legislation developed abroad and imposed is not, we are told repeatedly, acceptable and of all the anathemas the greatest is the dreaded social chapter.

But what is the story so far.

In 1986 I developed together with an Architect and craftsman, Rolf Rosner, himself a refugee from his native Germany who found a home and a welcome in the North East of England, a project that we called Benchmark, Benchmark recruited a group of young unemployed people and provided them, under Rolf's expert tuition, a grounding in Arts and Crafts, this led to an exhibition of work and helped the young people to develop their own practise or to move into employment following their exposure to Rolf's re-imagining of the European craft school environment from which he benefited as a young man.

This project was funded by the European Commission.

Other projects with which I became involved benefited equally from being associated with and part of the wider European Community.

I will be voting yes to remain part of Europe for four significant reasons:

The fact that the nations of Europe have co-existed peacefully since 1945. Prior to that date Europe had torn itself apart in two Great Wars and had all but bankrupted itself, its recovery enabled only by the effects of the Marshall Plan. Clearly there have been moments when nations have held their breath, the Balkan's post Tito and now the shifting tectonic plates of conflict in the Middle East and especially Syria, resulting in the displacement of generations caught in the crossfire and washed up on Europe's shores, but the agreement implied by the idea of a European identity transcending nationalism offers the hope that despite increasing right wing 'noises off', those who arrive will be welcomed and will enrich European society.

In retirement I have travelled in Europe and have benefited from the freedom offered by the Schengen Agreement, I have lived from time to time in both Italy and Spain, there is it seems to me a cultural freedom when travelling, whether by air, by train or by car. My wife is a wheelchair user and we have benefited from the support and assistance available across Europe, whether eating in a restaurant in Milan, wandering the streets of Genoa or Paris or Barcelona or sitting down to Paella in the Restaurante El Mirador in the El Chorro region of Andalusia in all of this there is a sense of becoming inculturated and experiencing the true benefit of being a European Citizen recognising yourself as the inheritor of a broader European sensibility.

One particular expression of the value of Europe and our membership of the European Union is the Diocese of Europe. Once known as the Diocese of Fulham and Gibraltar, the Diocese exists to serve the interests of what are sometimes known as ex pats. But whether it is framing and shaping a humane response to the tragedy of refugees from war, whether it is representing an open and inclusive sense of what at its best it means to be 'church' or whether it is celebrating the rich culture and way of life of different communities within Europe as a continent, the Diocese is at once a place where what it means to be part of a community of  fellowship can be celebrated.

Fourthly, the economy. Britain is by definition on the periphery of Europe, we are an island nation. There is no doubt that in economic terms there are both centrifugal and centripetal forces at work. At the commercial and economic centre the Rhine-Ruhr conurbation is a key centre for manufacturing and those companies who wish to 'invest' in 'Europe' will seek to invest in that region, the economic effect of this will be on the one hand for money to flow into the centre and for the centre to become profitable but in order to ensure that markets remain viable it is politically essential that money and other benefits flow out. For Britain, a key peripheral market, it is essential that we remain active in both the political heart of Europe, Brussels and Strasbourg, that we continue to welcome those manufacturers who base themselves in Britain because of our access to European markets. But it is also essential that we become whole hearted in embracing our partners across Europe. America and Britain are sometimes described as two nations divided by a common language. Interestingly enough, despite the language differences across the nations of Europe it is becoming easier to communicate as English becomes the Lingua Franca of Europe.

As a nation we may be 'peripheral' geographically but increasingly if we choose to be we have the potential to be at the cultural centre of the emerging continent of new Europe. The Government has chosen to  make our membership of Europe 'problematical' lets hope that the referendum situates us at the heart of the European project as it develops.

18th January 2016

As the influence of Jeremy Corbyn moves the Labour Party membership towards the left of the political spectrum, often against the instincts of both his cabinet and back benchers, so the political right digs in deeper to secure its alliances with the worlds of finance, media and business.

Last week I settled down to watch back to back episodes of Silent Witness on iPlayer.

At first as my attention was caught by the developing story line I could see how the current recruitment of Jihadi's might have its roots in the deeper history linking back, as the storyline did, to atrocities carried out in Bosnia in the early 1990's.

But, as the story unfolded it became increasingly clear that I was watching pure, shameless propaganda.

The question underpinning the concept of 'Estates' is essentially: Who is fit to Govern society?

In Europe generally, and in France especially, the First Estate was the Church, which is why the Lord's spiritual, even today sit in the House of Lords.

The Second Estate was the nobility, the Lords, who sit with Bishops in the House of Lords.

The Third Estate was everyone else, who at the start of the French revolution numbered 27 Million!

In England, and Scotland, the third estate is represented by the House of Commons made up as it is of those elected by the population at large to Govern in the interests of, and for the welfare of, the people as a whole.

Over the years and into the 20th and 21st Centuries a 'Fourth Estate' emerged compromising the news media and especially print journalism, as a sub-text to this, the emergence of bloggers and outlets such as independentoped.com, can sometimes be seen as a 'Fifth Estate', although some in parliament might see it as a 'Fifth Column".

These 'Estates' have held sway for generations, where I live in Cumbria the name tithe or Tithe Barn, or Glebe or Glebe Field is a constant reminder of the role and power of the Church as 'First Estate', when a tenth of the harvest was collected and held for the benefit of the Church. But this power has waned to the point where the gathering of Lords Spiritual in Westminster looks increasingly anachronistic and the Churches isolation in areas such as Human Sexuality, Gender and especially in what is usually called 'Gay' marriage, leave it exposed to a lack of public sympathy which is fast becoming for the Church of England an existential crisis.

Ironically, it is the second estate, represented by the House of Lords, that is becoming the unofficial, if not only, opposition to the Government of the day. In the matter of Tax Credits recently it was the Lords who called on the Government to rethink and now the issue of funding of opposition parties and the Government's blatant attempt to secure its own position and weaken the Oppositions by challenging Union funding of the Labour Party and the reduction of what is known as 'Short Money' all of which has been traditionally a Cross Party issue, but which was announced by the Chancellor in his most recent statement as a 'done deal'.

But it is not only the Church which is facing an existential crisis, Parliament itself is becoming increasingly divided as Labour engages in a battle of conscience over the renewal of Trident and the Conservatives battle over to Brexit or not.

Add into this mix, the attacks on welfare and benefits, the bizarre and unsustainable attack on those who wish to seek safety and security in Britain but who are being told that they must earn above £35k annually, £10K above the minimum wage, to stay here if they wish to work as nurses, health care workers, teachers or Barrista's.

When in the early 18th Century France's Third Estate rose to overthrow the First and Second Estates its battle cry was Liberty, Fraternity, Equality.

The soundtrack for the revolution was the rattle of the wheels of the Tumbril's on the wet cobbles, the crashing of the guillotine and the clicking of knitting needles. In Manchester during August 1819, the sound of screams, the thunder of horses hooves, the rattle of Sabres was the soundtrack as Cavalry, the Second Estates storm troopers, charged a crowd of 70,000 people at St Peter's Field as they gathered to demand Parliamentary reform.

Today, as the Davros economic forum opens for business, Oxfam reports that a mere 62 people own more than 50% of the world population.

Divisions have become so glaringly wide that they are now a disgrace which must be addressed urgently, if the world is going to continue to do its business on a daily basis without disintegrating into chaos as the Ponzi economies collapse as though we have all been playing a game of surreal Monopoly.

But is the Fourth Estate up to the job? Do we have a free press? The BBC, as a public service corporation is meant to be fair and independent, it has been criticised by both this Government and the previous coalition Government as being biased and there are suggestions that its funding arrangements and its franchise should be challenged, secret meetings between Richard Murdoch and George Osborne have been rumoured.

However as recent programmes have indicated the Corporation demonstrates a clear bias against the Labour Parties leadership in its news and current affairs output, as have other red tops, tabloids and print journalism, but the BBC in its entertainment shows such as Silent Witness, demonstrates clearly that whoever you are, whatever community you may belong to, you may well be depicted unfairly and inaccurately, entertainment as propaganda is as insidious as it is wrong.

30th December 2015

So this is the last Blog of 2015.

Here's hoping for a better 2016.

Storm Frank came and went, the rain rained, the wind blew and the storm defences alongside our stream, consisting of interlinked perforated metal barriers covered with plastic sheeting held down by chains, sandbags and clips, were blown apart by the wind, the plastic sheeting ripped off and the perforated metal left utterly useless as a flood defence.

The next storm will be 'G' and should be called 'George' in honour of the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the eighteenth storm could be called 'Rory' in honour of the beleaguered minister for floods.

The weather is unpredictable, unmanageable and has been until recently un-forecastable.

Years ago a friend of mine was hosting his church garden fete, so he rang the weather centre at Newcastle Airport in order to check whether it would be safe to plan to hold the fete outdoors, he was reassured but advised to check back on the day which he did, in the morning he was told that a weather front was coming in and that he might be better remaining indoors, two hours later the front had moved direction instead of heading down the South Tyne valley it appeared to be veering North so outside would be good, two hours before the fete he was given the all clear, at Three pm as the Mayor opened the Fete, it rained.

Forecasting is now more scientific and therefore more accurate but Storm Frank, as Eva and Desmond before it, went its own way and is now as I write well out of the way, somewhere near Iceland, with 100 mph winds and about to drop a weather bomb on the North Pole which will raise temperatures by 50% whilst, ironically, making the weather in the UK 'more seasonal!

The unpredictability of weather has its economic parallel.

There is a consensus that Margaret Thatcher changed the political 'weather' by forcing a review of the post war settlement which had been introduced in the aftermath of the Second World War, during a time when the 'political weather' was clement, Thatcher was able to introduce her vision of a free market as that 'weather' changed.

But alongside this the freeing of the market carried with it a view that, like the weather, it was free to move and shift as it chose, controls were anathema and the essential purpose of Government was to encourage the entrepreneurs to make money, which they did of course, but not by making things, as new financial instruments were imagined, money just made money and the dole queues grew longer.

The argument was made that as the wealthy became wealthier so the benefits would trickle or drip down but the evidence (rejected and denied by Thatcher and her Tory supporters) suggested that all that ever 'dripped down' were the chilly waters of increasing poverty which floated the boats of the wealthiest on a rising tide but which overwhelmed and sank the boats of the less well off.

I am grateful to my friend Andy Smith the playwright who wrote in his piece 'all that is solid melts into air' commissioned and performed in Bergen in 2011, for drawing my attention to the quotation which is from The Communist Manifesto.

As Andy writes in the play:

'..... what happens to us when capitalism takes hold. When our values change. When our relationship with things and each other starts to alter. When our infrastructures break down'.

These are the questions that Marx and Engels posed in their text.

Whether it's weather or capitalism it seems the results are very much the same.

Recent floods have brought out the very best in people whether in Carlisle or York or Hebden Bridge but there have been reports of looting, of opportunists seeking to enrich themselves at the expense of deepening others misery.

Insurance companies step back.

Payments are withheld or delayed.

The Prime Minister says he will do, in his classic of cameronspeak 'The Right Thing".

Rory Stewart appears on television standing in flooded streets saying that the defences worked, until they didn't work.

Spending on flood defences has been reduced because the thing with austerity is that we are all in it together.

And relationships change, I know that its not Syria but during the storms I felt under siege, my hatches were battened, driving home from visiting family I drove through flood water and was not at all sure what I would find when I arrived at my front door (still dry, Phew!).

Phone calls from friends not affected by Desmond were welcome only for their communities to be flooded by Eva.

Street after street of skips filled with the detritus of lives a stark reminder that our relationships, with both things and each other have changed.

The storms have impacted on the infrastructure, whether it is stores closed after flooding Tesco, Sainsbury, whether the services, whose funding has been cut back and back again, overstretched and unable to cope, hospitals struggling to find beds, A&E rooms under siege, local authorities stretched beyond their capacity to provide services, as major centres 'Northern Powerhouses'? left with City Centres under unprecedented depths of contaminated water.

The link between extreme weather and extreme ideological politics is pretty clear as the one impacts to reveal the weakness of the other .......

7th December 2015

Who on earth had the bright idea of giving storms names, and whoever thought that Desmond would be a good name?

At least Abigail had the dubious merit of being a fairly bad pun, as in Abbey Gale, my fellow student in Durham was called Keith Gale and was always known as Windy to his friends at college.

But Desmond?

Where was the pun in that unless some meteorologist who has been a lifelong Beatles fan had the thought:

ob-la-di, ob-la-dah
The wind goes on, bra
La-la, how the rain goes on

And remembered Desmond?

Maybe, if its left to the same meteorologist the next storm will be called Molly?

Life in Cumbria, in the Eden Valley in particular,this weekend was a life under siege.

I recognise that across the world far worse man made events are tearing communities apart and I find myself making an emotional connection between the start of the bombing campaign in Syria and what was happening around me.

Desmond certainly made it personal. Despite living in a flood zone with a feeder stream for the Eden flowing through our garden and the swirling waters from the Eden cutting our village off and closing the main A69 Trunk Road, our feet remained dry as the water flowed past our house, but the wind, the wind .....

My motorcycle was blown over and then swept by the wind sidelong along the ground and into the back of my car.

In lashing rain and driving wind I had to stand the bike back up and then secure it to the side of the house.

ob-la-di, ob-la-dah
The wind goes on, bra
La-la, how the rain goes on

On and on, to set new a record following the previous record which coincided with the floods of 2005 and this despite the Millions of pounds that have been spent on flood defences. Hundreds of homes destroyed again, hundreds of families made homeless again, hundreds of businesses affected again and the Old Fire Station, flooded in 2005 and then rebuilt and opened as an Arts Centre a year ago, flooded again as the centre of Carlisle was devastated by Desmond and his ob-la-di, ob-la-dah.

Apparently, again, according to David Cameron, money is no object and following his Cobra Meeting he arrives in Cumbria to share the pain.

His 'Vicar in Cumbria', Rory Stewart who is also floods minister, in an interview with the parish magazine stated:

The flood defences built since 2005, had given authorities more time to evacuate people and kept flood levels down.

The defences 'held strong' but the huge levels of rain were too much for them.

Who is going to ask the question why were there 'huge levels of rain'?

Standing in the driving rain on Saturday night, holding onto my hat whilst water dripped off my coat and into my boots, I was talking to a neighbour whose husband was loading sand bags into their car in order to seal their doors and stop the water invading their property, we were asking the basic question, what is causing this? Why is it happening?

In Paris the nations debate climate change whilst here in Cumbria we are experiencing it.

Doubtless in the Cobra Committee David Cameron will continue to dismiss 'green crap' and his Vicar on Earth, the Minister for Flooding will continue to rehearse the party line and just blame, well, the weather, of course.

But surely as these events increase and as the world warms to the point where in some places life is made impossible because of heat and aridity and other places, like Cumbria, it is made impossible by winds and rain and flooding courtesy of a storm called Desmond even the Eton educated Mr Cameron and his equally Eton educated Mr Stewart even if they ignored meteorology in favour of politics also undertook some study in logical thinking, putting two and two together and making sense of what is happening around them?

26th November 2015

What on earth is going on?

A recent exchange of emails with my MP resulted in his repeating the Low Tax, Low Welfare, High Wage economy mantra.

My response:

Your reply to  my recent email is both patronising and wrong in all aspects.

We are now being subjected to the most ill considered social experiment, conducted by Millionaires , as though it were a set test at Eton.

How can you destroy 70 years of social progress in one parliament?

This Government, of which you are a part, is taking us back to the 1930's whilst protecting your friends the bankers and tax dodgers.

This is even more than the Grantham Grocer's daughter dared to imagine in her wildest dreams.

I suggested that we might meet and he responded with an invitation to meet him at one of his surgeries, even suggesting dates before Christmas.

But now it seems that with a further £27 Billion, a hypothetical £27 Billion as various commentators have noticed, being found behind a hypothetical settee or Green Bench, we are it seems being offered a high welfare, high tax (especially if you are a second home owner or buying to let) economy with wages still below the level that they were in 2008.

This Autumn Statement was a breathtaking act of legerdemain, with rabbits in hats, silk scarves being waved to deceive the eye and the political trickery outshining the economic sense and coins materialising out of thin air.

Where was the investment in the future?

Now nurses lose their grants and are offered loans.

Young people are discouraged at all levels.

A social housing programme which is ultimately without meaning.

There is little evidence of research in technology, science, engineering what we have in fact to look forward too in the light of this budget is a low investment, low return, client economy, with the investment such as its is being made by foreign governments.

The shadow chancellor's reference to Mao's little red book may have been a ham fisted but it contained more than a kernel of truth which, unfortunately the China loving chancellor was able to capitalise on.  But the long view that is contained in Mao's vision of the struggle to defeat capitalism and introduce socialism continues to inform the Chinese Government in its global strategy.

What could be smarter than taking a leading share holding in Britain's energy supply in the years ahead?

As the Red Book says:

We communists never conceal our political views.

As for imperialist countries, we should unite with their peoples and strive to co-exist peacefully with those countries, do business with them and strive to prevent any possible war, but under no circumstances should we harbour any unrealistic notions about them.

Even, I imagine, whilst drinking beer and eating fish and chips in a Cotswold pub.

The autumn statement was a series of sound bites designed to capture headlines and in this it was a triumph, but what will happen next?

The building industry has shortages not only in raw materials, from steel to bricks, but also a shortage in skilled workers, from bricklayers to site managers. It is doubtful whether, beyond the headlines, the houses will be built but in the anti revolutionary fervour which underpins the small state society and economy toward which the Tories seek to lead us that won't matter because as 2020 comes around, as the music stops in the game of musical chairs played at the Tory Party Conference, he will blame him or him or him or they will all blame her.

The mantra of high wage, low tax, low welfare is a smokescreen to cover the obvious and barely concealed shifting of the social and economic landscape as greater inequality is achieved through enormous and unjustifiable bonuses for bankers and huge and salary hikes for CEO's.

Alongside the question of Weapons of Mass Destruction leading to the invasion of Iraq, Peter Mandelson's comment about being relaxed about the rich contributed hugely to Tony Blair's undoing.

So there should be, in any decent, contemporary society, a relationship between the earnings of those at either end of the wage spectrum, views about what that relationship should be vary but a recent suggestion was a range of 1-20 with 1 being the lowest and 20 being the highest.

Whilst there is no evidence at all that the Tory Party shares this view, of course not! The evidence published by The Equality Trust plus other commentators is that a more equal society is a society that flourishes socially, educationally, and in the physical and mental health and well-being of its citizens.

In today's newspaper's the left suggested that there had been a U Turn and whilst welfare will still be reduced, (the devil in the detail) nevertheless the age of austerity is officially over, whilst the right decried the budget as 'socialist' more or less what Ed Miliband might have done if the public had been foolish enough to return him to power.

My view when I see Chancellor and Prime Minister side by side enjoying the joke of having caused such discomfort to the opposition, that this is simply an exercise lifted almost entirely from the edition of a Tom Brown's Schooldays that I missed.

I wrote some years ago in the Church Action on Poverty newsletter that if you replaced the word 'Victorian' with the word 'Dickensian' then the effect of Tory policies in the 1980's becomes clearer.

Victoria we are told 'was not amused' and neither should we be ........

9th November 2015

I have just finished reading Jane Smiley's trilogy in which she follows a family for a hundred years, from 1920 to 2020.

The research that went into this novel was comprehensive and is evident in the narrative as it unfolds.

Each chapter, and there are a hundred spread over three books, is titled with the year that it covers.

The novel unfolds with family members being born and dying, experiencing tragedy and success, loving and being loved, but all the time being shaped and changed and challenged by external events.

The historical chapters faithfully reflect the events as they occurred in each respective year but as 2015 gives way to 2016 and through to 2020 there is a fascinating and subtle change to the events described and their impact on the family.

Smiley did not anticipate the outcome of the elections in Canada and quite sensibly did not reflect on the impact of the anti-austerity movement in Europe probably because it had little consequence in America.

But two geo-political phenomena dominate both the historic developments as the author describes their effect on her families and their possible effects from 2016 onwards.

These phenomena are Global Warming and the political strength of China.

As I read the final chapters I began to develop a deep pessimism about the future as it is emerging under the current British Government, as Global Warming reaches a tipping point beyond which it becomes irreversible and as we sign deals with the Chinese Government whilst apparently severing our links with Europe so the list of discontents, not just with Globalisation a la Stiglitz but with our own elected government and the outcomes of austerity as it impacts on individuals and families, lengthens.

Inequality increases as manufacturing declines, as the service sector enlarges and financial services are freed from control or supervision so wealth flows towards the rich increasing inequality and limiting the life choices of those without resources.

A recently published OECD Report indicates that income inequality has risen (is rising) in Britain faster than in other rich nations.

The reason for this increase in inequality is given as the rise of a 'financial services elite' concentrating wealth into the hands of a tiny minority.

Peter Mandelson may well have been relaxed about individuals becoming extremely wealthy but it is becoming clearer and clearer that the outcome of money flowing into the pockets of the wealthy and somehow mysteriously replicating itself is a deeply unjust and unequal society, a society that is not at ease with itself, a society that could be described as broken.

Changing things is not easy when the manicured hands of those with the money and the power rest on the levers which can make change happen.

In my neighbourhood I notice that the balance of ownership and renting is changing, those who own the asset hold on to it, better to rent than sell, better for whom? But that is the equation. As house prices rise it makes all kind of sense to hold on to the asset and through letting to derive an income from it.

And as social housing is sold off through right to buy so choice becomes more limited for those households seeking to access the market and the private sector adjusts itself accordingly.

And what is happening at the local and community level is reflected at the global.

Public ownership is rejected in favour of private except that the so called private investors are themselves publicly owned so as China signs an agreement to build our nuclear energy future we hand over our energy dependency to the Government of China.

We can march, campaign, write letters to editors, blog, protest, pray and with luck, in five years time, vote for change.

But the damage will have been done.

The low paid will be paid even less, inequality will be deeper.

Affordable houses will remain unbuilt.

We may no longer be part of Europe.

The coastline of the UK may start to look very different as the oceans rise and the storm blowing outside my window will if anything be blowing more fiercely.

I buy my energy and telephony from energy and telephony co-operatives they are successful but if the   economic and political climate changes who knows?

Even more scarily, although apparently I read in today's Guardian that someone under eighty should not be referred too as elderly, nevertheless I will be older and possibly more reliant on health care being available free at the point of  need.

In her novel Jane Smiley asks through one of her characters 'have we lived through a golden age?'

That is indeed the title of the third book.

I was born before the NHS was founded in 1948, I was a baby boomer, I lived and grew up in a welfare state that I learnt to take for granted whilst appreciating and valuing the real benefits that it provided for me and my family, I can say that in my lifetime I have lived through a golden age.

It is however hard to imagine what future generations will experience.